Forbrugertilliden faldt mere end ventet og nye dystre tal for boligmarkedet tyngede aktierne i US. Indexenes udsving var i den sammenhæng begrænsede, alle venter på FED.
Morgendagen er spækket med tal og kan gå hen og blive særdeles spændende. Kronen på værket leverer FED kl. 19:15. Som dark horse kan nævnes Bank of Japans rentemelding, hvor tidspunktet for offentliggørelse er ukendt.
Morgendagens nøgletal:
Bank of Japan, Rate decision (tidspunkt ukendt)
13:15 United States ADP Employment Change, October
13:30 United States GDP, 3rd Quarter, preliminary
13:30 United States Employment cost index, 3rd Quarter
13:30 United States Core PCE, 3rd Quarter, preliminary
13:30 United States Personal Consumption, 3rd Quarter, preliminary
15:00 United States Construction spending, September
19:15 United States Interest rate decision from FOMC
Teknik:
Teknisk er intet ændret siden i går.
Konklusion:
Jeg er fortsat positiv på aktier, men det kræver også at FED leverer varen i morgen aften. Gør de ikke det, kan det blive meget grimt. Den brede forventning er en sænkning på 0,25%, andre venter 0,5%. Fastholdelse eller renteforhøjelse er nok ikke specielt realistisk, men vender pilen den vej tror jeg vi skal markant ned.
Jeg tror på 0,25 som jeg forventer vil udløse et korvarigt sell-off, hvorefter et relief vil sætte ind. Ved 0,5% tror jeg på øjeblikkelig markant stigning - jeg tror ikke det bliver 0,5% men vil omvendt ikke blive overrasket.
Good luck - det er en meget vigtig dag i morgen!
mvh
Abgenix
Mail: abgenixtrader@yahoo.dk
3 kommentarer:
Tillykke med din nye blog, abgenix.
Du gør den også hele tiden bedre og mere læsværdig. En fornøjelse at læse!
For lige at sætte lidt lus i skindpelsen (Nåh-nej, det er jo mig, der er bear.)her er en kommentar til FED's kommende beslutning, frisk hugget fra http://www.247wallst.com/2007/10/why-the-fed-won.html
October 30, 2007
Why The Fed Won't Cut Rates
The two major reasons given in the media for the Fed to cut rates tomorrow are that fact that the stock market wants them to and that it might help the housing market.
At some point a pact may have been made between investors and the Fed, but the part about keeping the stock market high must not have made it to public attention yet. As far as anyone knows, the Fed does not owe the stock market a thing.
On the housing side of the ball, there is no strong evidence that a quarter point cut in interest rates is going to help people who have watched their home values drop 10% or seen their adjustable mortgages reset at much higher rates.
The Fed claims that it is concerned about inflation. And it should be. Gas prices are likely to rise. Employment levels are good and so is wage growth. Most Q3 earnings were OK, so corporate profits are not taking a beating outside the banking sector. The stock markets are at or near multi-year highs. In other words, the classic warning signs of the economy grinding to a halt are not there. Not now. If they start to come into view, the Fed can always move in December.
The other "hidden" reason that the Fed might want to cut rates is to help shore up pools of mortgage-backed securities. Whether this will work is impossible to say. The financial instruments built around them are too complex. The banks are already creating a "super-fund" to help their own cause.
Even if banks have to go through another round of very painful write-downs on mortgage-related securities and LBO debt, it is not the Fed's role to put an artificial net under the country's largest financial institutions. Both Buffett and Greenspan have said that there is no way for the market to know what kind of mess it is in until investors get to see the evidence. Short term loans to keep weak pools of money from being marketed to market is the antithesis of that philosophy.
The Fed does not need to cut rates. The economy and markets are too good. And, if holding rates flushes out the largest problems in the financial markets, let it be so. It is a boil and needs to be lanced.
The Fed should let the cards fall where they may.
Douglas A. McIntyre
:)
Mvh. Cumulina.
Hej Cumulina
Tak :-).
Tja vi må se hvor det ender.
Som sagt tror jeg på 0,25% - mine argumenter kender du - men de er jo evigt ligegyldige for det er FED der bestemmer.
Kommer de ikke bliver jeg mindst lige så meget bear som dig :-)
mvh
Abgenix
Jamen du skal da være velkommen i "Bjørnebanden"! Altid plads til én til...
Selv Brian Shannon på http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/ er noget bekymret i dag.
Mine amerikanske "bjørne" fik et godt spark opad i den sidste time, det var noget en lille bjørnemor kunne lide.
Dollaren - den lille stakkel - bliver ved med at sætte nye rekorder for nedadgående.
Joh, det bliver spændende i morgen! (Også.)
:)
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